One of the oft-repeated phrases of the last 18 months has been “we’ll be led by the data”.

We’ve heard it from politicians, managers, business leaders and industry executives.

But however reliable the data is, informed decisions can only be taken by interpreting the data correctly.

So what to make of the series of recent statistics on the ‘Great Rail Recovery’?

I put the phrase in speech marks because it’s not all it’s made out to be.

There has been much trumpeting of the fact that demand for rail travel is back to 70% of pre-Covid levels. Some of the busier stations are even reporting that numbers are nearly back to the levels seen in the early part of 2020 with 95% of normal customer traffic.

It’s true that the latest Department for Transport statistics show that rail travel was at 69% or 70% on every day from 6 – 24 October including a run of five consective days at 70% from 17 – 21 October.

But the devil is in the detail.

As I previously pointed out in my 18 September post Led by Leisure, the performance is not uniform throughout the day or across the week.

The Rail Delivery Group says since the end of the summer holidays leisure journeys account for 55% of all train journeys compared with 33% pre-pandemic. The rail industry is warning the slow growth in commuter journeys could put city centre businesses at risk.

And since that 70% figure in National Rail use was reached, the level has started to drift back down again with provisional data showing the number at 62% or 63% of pre-pandemic usage.

Car use? Since you ask, that’s often at 100% or more of the numbers seen on the roads before Covid.

A recent survey by Network Rail suggested two-thirds of the British public recognise the railway as a greener mode of transport – and yet 73% of this group still primarily use cars to get around.

“Hybrid working and home working will have a long-term effect on the rail industry and it would be foolish to think the world is going back to its pre-pandemic state.”

There is already anecdotal evidence that midweek, middle of the day services are becoming much busier – to the point where seats are hard to find, particularly those still craving some distance from others. That is the new rush hour.

There’s no sign that the exhortations to return to the office are working. Hybrid working and home working are here to stay and will have a long-term effect on the rail industry. It would be foolish to think the world is going back to its pre-pandemic state.

It is likely that train use on Mondays and Fridays will continue to be lower than on Tuesdays to Thursdays, particularly at the previous peak hours of 7-9am and 4-6pm. And weekend travel will continue to be popular with leisure travellers and those seeking days out.

That’s why if the rail industry truly is “led by data”, it will have to shift its entire timetabling, staffing and promotional effort to reflect the new realities of rail travel.